Kelly Criterion Explained: Smart Staking for Value Bettors

The Kelly Criterion helps you stake the right amount based on edge and odds, maximizing growth and reducing risk of ruin over time.

📈 What Is the Kelly Formula?

It calculates the optimal stake size by comparing your perceived probability against implied odds. Formula: Edge ÷ Odds = Stake % of bankroll.

💡 When to Use Kelly

Use it when you have a clear edge and reliable probability estimates. It's ideal for disciplined value bettors who prioritize long-term bankroll growth.

⚖️ Risks and Downsides

Overestimating your edge leads to oversized bets. Many bettors use a fractional Kelly (e.g., half Kelly) to reduce volatility and stay conservative.

👉 Compare it with Flat Betting and Fibonacci Systems.