How to Build a Daily BTTS Shortlist from Data

Instead of “feeling” your way through a Saturday coupon, you should be working from a repeatable BTTS shortlist process. The goal is not to predict every goals game – it is to consistently find a small group of strong candidates that can feed your accumulators.

Step 1 – Start from the Right Leagues

Focus on leagues with reliable data and consistent playing styles. German, Dutch, Belgian and some Nordic leagues are typically far better for BTTS than ultra‑defensive competitions where one goal kills the game.

Step 2 – Pre‑Filter with Basic Numbers

Use recent goals scored and conceded, league position and home/away splits to remove obviously poor candidates. You do not need fancy models to discard teams that barely create chances or that park the bus away from home.

Step 3 – Add xG and Shot Profile

Expected goals (xG) give you deeper insight into chance quality. Teams with high xG for and against are far more reliable BTTS engines than those who rely on long‑range shots or score from set pieces only.

Step 4 – Context: Line‑ups, Weather, Schedule

Always check whether the key forwards and creative midfielders are starting. Combine this with a quick look at schedule congestion and weather – extreme rotations or heavy pitches can ruin an otherwise perfect BTTS setup.

Step 5 – Reduce to 3–5 Core BTTS Candidates

Give each potential game a simple 1–5 score based on attacking strength, defensive weakness, motivation and tactical style. Keep only the top three to five fixtures to consider for your accumulator. This is your daily BTTS engine.